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Independent Investor: Emerging Markets — Times Are Changing
Bill Schmick,
09:12PM / Friday, July 15, 2011
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While the investing world is distracted by the U.S. debt ceiling crisis and the on-going drama of Italy and Greece, I've noticed that a small but increasing stream of money is finding its way back into some emerging markets.  

Last year, I advised investors to lighten up on emerging markets. That proved to be the right call. The Chinese market is now below the levels last seen in late 2009. India and Brazil have lagged world markets as has Russia. But usually you want to begin to invest in these markets before their stock markets turn. Today, I think it may be the right time to start nibbling in the area. Here's why.

The increase in commodity prices was a major negative for

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@theMarket: Stair-Stepping Higher
Bill Schmick,
04:54PM / Friday, April 15, 2011
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The best rallies are those that move up, take a breather and then move up again. That way markets do not get extended, the gains are fairly predictable, as are the pullbacks. It appears that is the kind of market we are in at present.

The S&P 500 Index reached a low of 1,249 exactly one month ago. It then soared 7.2 percent to 1,339 in the next 23 days. We began this pullback a week ago and so far have given back less than 2 percent of those gains. I would expect a bit more time and possibly downside before resuming our march toward 1,400 on the S&P.

If you are looking for excuses (as so many of us do) to explain the short-term gyrations in the market there are plenty of

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@theMarket: Stop Worrying About Inflation
Bill Schmick,
10:29AM / Sunday, February 13, 2011
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Here is a sampling of comments I received this week from Berkshire clients:

"Just wait until higher prices start hiking the inflation rate."

"Interest rates are rising because of inflation."

"Look at the government deficit disaster, the only thing we can do is inflate our way out of debt."

It is as if everyone in the United States is absolutely convinced that we are on the verge of hyperinflation. And yet the inflation rate remains below the Federal Reserve's target of what is considered a healthy rate of inflation. It's time I cut through the hyperbole and set things straight for you and I.

I believe that until the unemployment rate drops

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@theMarket: Santa Visits Wall Street
Bill Schmick,
04:14PM / Thursday, December 23, 2010
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As markets close in this holiday-shortened week, the stock market enjoyed its annual Christmas rally with all three averages reaching new highs for the year. It was the best December for the S&P since 1991 and most forecasters believe these gains indicates an even larger move in the first half of next year.

Goldman (or should I say Government) Sachs upped its forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 1,450 for 2011. That is a 16 percent projected gain in the index and, if true, would bring us within 115 points of that average's all time high reached on Oct. 9, 2007.

Adding to the good cheer this week was the news that existing home

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@theMarket: The Dog That Wags the Tail
Bill Schmick,
06:37AM / Saturday, November 20, 2010
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It is becoming clearer by the day that the U.S. is no longer the Big Dog in financial markets. Ten years ago what happened overseas would have little if any impact on U.S. markets. Today most traders won't make a move without first checking overseas markets.

Last week, I warned that we were in for at least a 5 percent correction and so far we've pulled back 4.4 percent on the S&P 500 Index. I expect continued choppiness through the holiday shortened week with a bias to the downside. There is a possibility that the markets could overshoot and register as much as 6-7 percent drop. I would buy that dip if it occurs.

This correction is a great example of how things have changed. It

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