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@theMarket: It's Still a Coin Toss
By Bill Schmick,
06:11PM / Saturday, June 18, 2016

Despite all the algorithmic programs, high-powered computers, enormous capital and worldwide connections, what happens in the investment world sometimes comes down to a coin toss. The British vote next Thursday to stay or exit the European Community is shaping up to be one of those binary events.

Have you noticed that there are more and more of these kinds of events in the world?

Remember the U.S. government shutdown, the Greek Referendum, the TARP vote, the German bailout votes for Greece, the vote on Spanish austerity? These are just some of the either/or occasions that sent global markets up or down in double-digit moves.

If you listen to some of the big brokers, they

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@theMarket: The Only Game in Town
By Bill Schmick,
05:31PM / Friday, June 10, 2016

Investors are scratching their heads in confusion. How can U.S. stocks, bonds, commodities and the dollar all go up at the same time? It flies in the face of historical relationships that have been around for years. Thank the central banks of the world for the present situation.

It all comes down to negative interest rates. This year, both European and Japanese central banks have instituted this tactic in an effort to jump-start their economies, weaken their currencies, and offer lending institutions a disincentive to hoarding cash, rather than lend it out.

So far, this strategy has had dismal results.

Foreign institutions have flocked to the American financial markets

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@theMarket: Summertime, But Nothing Seems Easy
By Bill Schmick,
07:05AM / Saturday, May 28, 2016

After a couple of days of hand wringing, traders are now going with the notion that if the Fed raises rates in June or July, it may actually be good for the economy. Don't put too much stock in that, however, because herd sentiment can turn quickly with one simple statement from the Fed.

You have to be impressed with the market's performance. In the face of a potential interest rate hike in less than three weeks and a June decision on whether Great Britain will exit the Eurozone, the market continues to grind higher.

As we enter this three-day weekend, (three for us, but most of the Street stretches it to four), don't expect this Friday to be a "tell" on

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@theMarket: Traders Build a Wall of Worry
By Bill Schmick,
05:33PM / Friday, May 13, 2016

The markets are marking time. Earnings season is just about over. The lofty levels of the stock market survived those results largely because they were not quite as bad as expected. Now it is on to the next worry.

Pick your poison — uncertainty over this summer's political conventions, can oil prices sustain these price levels or how about the possibility of a Fed rate hike in June? No question, there is a wall of worry out there, but so far the markets have weathered everything the bears have thrown at them. That is quite impressive given that we have had a 13 percent gain from the lows and hovering just a percent or so below all-time highs.

We have been trading in a

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@theMarket: It May Be That Time Again
By Bill Schmick,
01:12PM / Saturday, April 30, 2016

For traders, the old adage to "Sell in May" is now upon us. Over the past 40-plus years this recommendation has worked over 70 percent of the time. Should you go with the statistics or ignore them?

As regular readers know, the S&P 500 Index has already reached my target of 2,100. We did so over two weeks ago and until yesterday the bulls have been trying to break over that line and get back to the historical highs around 2,134.

The perfect excuse to do so should have occurred on Wednesday when the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee announced their latest decision to keep rates where they are.

The wording of the news release was almost identical

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